Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 32.496024 35.014734 37.743401 40.938849 44.604036 48.708292 53.697414
2025-04-27 29.281961 32.760202 36.778509 41.838282 48.151405 55.931131 66.521085
2025-05-04 27.149310 31.115997 35.895988 42.222520 50.612284 61.742457 78.387985
2025-05-11 25.269521 29.464429 34.676288 41.836653 51.793288 65.821685 88.591186
2025-05-18 23.660849 27.956367 33.421643 41.156953 52.340764 68.930911 97.927944
2025-05-25 22.284320 26.612669 32.227400 40.373158 52.548335 71.448038 106.830263
2025-06-01 21.152842 25.496090 31.226163 39.723696 52.813521 74.015032 116.475150
2025-06-08 20.040840 24.328766 30.060613 38.709049 52.357950 75.253792 123.852307
2025-06-15 19.750524 24.242837 30.372202 39.877588 55.479771 83.234966 148.540070
2025-06-22 19.097896 23.615376 29.864617 39.739418 56.399712 87.325889 166.119883
2025-06-29 18.363532 22.833699 29.082290 39.098864 56.363919 89.521761 179.850661
2025-07-06 17.564462 21.923950 28.062013 38.000672 55.392954 89.626138 187.702522
2025-07-13 17.365837 21.871973 28.325700 39.029291 58.463824 99.147358 232.500225
2025-07-20 17.122192 21.742353 28.463666 39.863111 61.303127 109.025332 290.392250
2025-07-27 16.780884 21.450560 28.330982 40.217913 63.250270 117.358316 354.841979
2025-08-03 16.301424 20.932358 27.815730 39.861586 63.698815 121.949149 408.829299
2025-08-10 15.794520 20.352832 27.174582 39.233522 63.499362 124.730654 458.391455
2025-08-17 15.298880 19.772168 26.505054 38.508628 63.010539 126.590167 507.333986
2025-08-24 14.859411 19.261099 25.924548 37.907449 62.728115 129.045588 570.535038
2025-08-31 14.373543 18.664566 25.183171 36.967275 61.596026 128.608499 607.103126
2025-09-07 14.327606 18.734947 25.522393 38.049942 65.193089 144.834756 939.234728
2025-09-14 14.044495 18.430229 25.231972 37.922007 65.946476 151.663237 1221.680397
2025-09-21 13.687042 17.999508 24.715888 37.328617 65.508740 153.970653 1450.687772